It almost looks like China has been forced into submission in this tariff battle, with the purchase of Boeing jets serving as a symbolic concession. For years, aircraft deals have been used as bargaining chips in U.S. trade negotiations, often showcased as proof of "goodwill", though more likely to be used to keep other deals under cover. The agreement could go up to 500 planes, and Boeing, which has struggled to secure major Chinese orders since Trump’s first term, now finds itself at the centre of this geopolitical transaction. Yet the aircraft deal is just the headline, as U.S. lawmakers and Chinese officials also touched on military dialogue, nuclear arsenal communication, semiconductor restrictions, and tech governance. So the “planes” may dominate the headlines, but the real negotiations touch on the balance of power across defence, tech, and global trade.

EQUITY

Wall Street extended its highs going into the week, riding on Big Tech with Nvidia and Apple leading on AI and iPhone 17 demand even as Trump’s $100,000 H-1B visa was signed into effect. Fed officials spent the day pouring cold water on hopes for rapid rate cuts, warning inflation’s still too high, but the market kept extending its winning streak for a third straight session. The rally, however, felt directed almost entirely by a handful of tech giants, while Indian stocks fell under the weight of U.S. immigration that may catch up to these companies.

GOLD

Gold rockets past the previous all-time high by a margin as markets price in aggressive Fed rate cuts, geopolitical turmoil, and relentless central bank demand as catalysts against the subtle weakness it showed before Friday last week. Analysts now target $4,000 by year-end, calling it a structural bull run on demand.

OIL

Crude oil prices edged lower in Asian session, though they remained steady on Monday. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a 2.7 million barrel-per-day increase in supply this year that might outpace demand. Prices have dropped more than 4% over the past month, influencing investor sentiment. Iraq’s pipeline restart after its deal with Kurdish authority added to oversupply fears, exporting 230,000 barrels per day.

CURRENCY

The U.S. dollar paused its rally with Federal Reserve warning that inflation risks remain and urging restraint on further rate cuts. Treasury yields climbed ahead of Chair Powell’s key speech, expected to reinforce data-dependent caution. The yen held steady, and the kiwi dipped ahead of a central bank announcement. Deutsche Bank maintains a bearish dollar outlook, citing global hedging shifts, Fed easing, and growing fiscal advantages outside the U.S.