China and the U.S. have finally struck a provisional deal to avert TikTok’s U.S. shutdown by transferring control to a U.S.-owned entity, with Chinese stakes capped under 20% to comply with federal law. A consortium led by Oracle, Andreessen Horowitz, and Silver Lake is structured to operate a new domestic entity, licensing ByteDance’s algorithm, and storing data via Oracle in Texas. Beijing consented to license core IP after Trump threatened enforcement, reversing months of deadlock triggered by earlier tariffs. Treasury Secretary Bessent credits Trump’s ultimatum as the turning point, with final terms awaiting confirmation in Friday’s Xi-Trump call. The accord also unlocks plans for a bilateral summit next month. Pending regulatory review, the structure balances national security with commercial continuity.

EQUITY

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq lost ground after another record high, with UnitedHealth and Microsoft among its biggest losers. August retail sales point toward steady consumer spending even with potential reinflation and labour market contraction. Markets are focused on Larry Ellison, who is shaking up tech and media through Oracle’s contracts with OpenAI while consolidating Hollywood power through Paramount and a Warner Bros acquisition. With Trump’s backing, he is also looking to buy TikTok, extending his influence across technology, politics, and entertainment.

GOLD

Gold fell slightly to $3,680 after a strong start to the week ahead of the Fed’s widely expected 25 bps rate cut, with prices up 40% YTD. While gold’s breakout is confirmed by rallying mining stocks and macro tailwinds like stagflation fears, Peter Schiff warns that the digital gold Bitcoin is “topping out", stalled at $116,000 resistance, and expected to drag physical gold along with it.

OIL

Oil prices shot up to near two-week highs with market sentiment remaining bullish even as U.S. crude inventories increased by 3.42 million barrels while there is a consensus for a drawdown. However, caution lingered due to OPEC+’s planned output increases later in 2025 and doubts over whether the Fed will signal additional action.

CURRENCY

As the Federal Reserve prepares to cut rates, the U.S. dollar is trading near multi-month lows, with the DXY down nearly 11% year-to-date and under pressure from tariff risks. China’s yuan hovers at a 10-month high, supported by dollar weakness but carefully manipulated by the PBOC. Global currencies like the euro, yen, and Aussie dollar are rallying against the greenback, while markets pivot to Fed Chair Powell’s post-decision remarks for clues on the pace of future cuts.