Private credit market is facing a retail-driven exodus and Goldman Sachs is actively turning industry it into a tactical advantage by leaning on "sticky" institutional capital to outperform rivals. While JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns that war-driven commodity shocks and "un-American" capital rules could fuel reinflation, Goldman has managed to keep redemptions below the industry-standard 5% cap, allowing it to pounce on deals as the lending power shifts back to creditors. While peers like Blue Owl face a liquidity crunch triggered by AI spending concerns and geopolitical unrest, Goldman and other banking giants are aggressively raising billions, betting that the current volatility will yield the strongest loan terms and covenants in years. Given Dimon’s caution that leveraged lending losses may climb, the $1.8 trillion sector is being reshaped by those with the patience to withstand the storm and the agility to exploit it.
EQUITY
Stock opened the week slightly higher even with Trump's deadline passed with no action. Equities have remained 5.5% below all-time highs, with market pricing solid U.S. economic data and labor conditions against geopolitical landscape and elevated crude oil price. Investor focus shift toward Friday's CPI report for evidence of reinflationary pressure. Memory manufacturer rebound slightly after Google's TurboQuant stirred the RAM market, reducing memory need to run AI models.
GOLD
Gold price trades at $4,650 with little change as investors balanced President Trump's deadline for Iranian infrastructure concessions against emerging ceasefire mediation efforts, though Iran continuously refused any effort. The precious metal found support from dollar pullback and central bank diversification strategies, though capped by a better U.S. labor market.
OIL
Crude oil prices traded higher ahead of President Trump's ultimatum to Iran. Iranian forces have effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, which transports 20% of global oil flows, and rejected a temporary ceasefire proposal, demanding instead a permanent end to hostilities and the lifting of sanctions. Saudi Aramco raised its official selling price for Arab Light crude to Asia to a record premium and Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted Russian exports. OPEC+ output gains stall due to Strait of Hormuz closures, with prices near four-year highs.
CURRENCY
The dollar index initially dipped on diplomatic optimism and an ISM services print, only to recover as Brent crude blasted past $109/barrel, reigniting stagflation fears and shoving market expectations for Fed rate cuts deep into 2027. In Asia, the yen teetered at 160 level against stern warnings from Tokyo, while the yuan sank under the dual weight of Middle East escalation and fraying Sino-US trade ties. With Easter-thinned liquidity amplifying every move, most investors rotated into cash, bracing for a violent repricing should the US-Israel-Iran standoff turn ugly.
